Campaigning for the DA - 22 Days to Go!!

Can you believe it that there are only 22 Days to go to Election Day!!?? It felt like only yesterday when the election was announced and now we are nearing the end of the campaign at a rapid speed.

It has really been a different but also fun camapign at the same time thus far. Also a very positive campaign. Being out there doing foot canvassing, handing out pamphlets, being visible at sport events, visiting retirement homes and other special homes and holding tables at shopping centres I have never felt such a positive vibe towards the DA in an election as this time around.

People are interested in politics again and they just want to chat to you about Helen Zille and the DA and ghow important it is to drive the ANC below a two thirds majority. Even though many of us, especially the candidates, are feeling tired, we are pumped because of the positive response we have received thus far.

This makes me very optimistic about the DA's chances in the coming election. Our campaign is running smooth and I don't think we have ever before been so visisble as we are this time around. Apart form the ANC I have not seen other parties campaigning on the ground outside the eyes of the media as much as we have. It just goes to show that size matters and the importance of having many activists, members and public representatives who can help campaigning.

I believe that this election will see a number of smaller parties being obliterated as South African politics experiences a realignment. Voters are more informed that before and understand what is at stake. So allow me, at thsi stage while I am still very positive to predict the winners and losers as I see it will emerge after 22 April.

Winners:

Democratic Alliance with a growth of between 4% and 6% in growth; with a win in the Western Cape and possibly part of a coalition government in the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

ANC - although with less votes than before will still win the national election.

COPE - although they will fare worse than expectation may come in between 5% and 8% of the vote which is good for a first time party.

Losers:

ID - will loose votes to the DA and COPE.

UDM - will loose votes to COPE.

FF+ - will retain their core fundamentalist voters but will return with less votes (international votes are going to the DA and not the FF+ as they expect).

PAC, AZAPO, APC, PAM - these are all splinter parties - old and new - who fish in the same pond but can't get along which will see the pan-African Azanian movement without representation in parliament due to their fractious support and internal vote splitting

New parties - with the exception of COPE none of the new parties will amass to anything as history has learnt - let's just hope that their collective votes do not cost other opposition parties seats in Parliament.

Retain their support:

IFP - has a core support but may be the surprise package in this election if they succeed to increase their votes in KZN. However, I expect them to retain their current support level.

ACDP - their voter base is a fundamentalist base and usually remains the same.

Well, roll on 22 April so that we can see whether my predictions are a hit or a miss!!!

Keep coming back I will blog at least once a week from now on to share experiences on the campaign trail with you.

Photos: DA manifesto launch in Johannesburg, DA election launch in Kliptown Soweto.

IT IS STILL THE DA VS ANC

There has been a lot of hype in South African politics about the breakaway from the ANC - the Congress of the People (COPE). The promise that it offered to help help break the power of the ANC has however, turned out to be a cracker without a fuse.
The last week we saw the COPE being sued for unpaid printing bills and it losing out totally in by-elections in the Eastern Cape, its supposed heartland. To top it all a new poll was published today that shows COPE to achieve 8% only in the coming elections.
This is very disappointing as we hoped that the COPE would be able to help driving the ANC below its current two thirds majority, unfortunately they seem unable to get going with a proper election campaign in order to compete.
On the other hand the IFP, written off as a has been party, seems to show some promise again in KwaZulu-Natal its traditional power base in taking on the ANC majority in conjunction with the DA.
All of this shows that the major parties in South African politics are still the DA and the ANC competing for the majority of South African votes.
The lesson in all this is that if you want change, you must vote and vote DA!