It is Zuma!!! Or is it?

So the last two weeks has shown intense political activity in the ANC in a time of the year when most people make the final preparations for their holidays.
The most significant event has been the provincial general councils of the ANC two or so weeks ago where Jacob Zuma seems to have sweeped the boards with nomination votes with President Mbeki coming second by about 1000 votes. The question one has to ask here is how many votes were pro-Zuma votes as opposed to anti-Mbeki votes?
Since then we have seen a lot of activity, mainly from the Mbeki camp to claw back support ahead of the ANC national conference this week. This included a women's march overtly supporting Mbeki's candidacy as well as one or two court cases. One court case was thrown out but the other one lead to an out of court settlement and the disbanding of three of the ANC's regions in the Free State province. This allows for that province to re-vote for their choice of the ANC leadership. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is much more going on behind the scenes to garner votes for what is turning out to be a high stakes election.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Jacob Zuma will win the party leader race for the ANC?
Anything can still happen and there has even been reports of a possible third mystery candidate. There are so many scenarios it just makes your head spin! Here are three possible ones.
Firstly, the obvious happens and Jacob Zuma wins the vote and becomes the ANC's new leader. Consequences? Mbeki will become a lame duck president, probably being prescribed to by his rival. The possibilty of an early election and Zuma escapes prosecution for his alleged involvement in the arms deal bribes due to political influence. The ANC remains divided and a purge of Mbeki supporters is possible in order to restore unity in the organisation. Such a purge could seriously hurt a person like police commissioner Jackie Selebi. Politcally and economically possibly a shift to the left under a Zuma presidency as he owes the SACP and Cosatu as well as the ANCYL a debt of gratitude. Populist policies and a lack of clear policy direction could also become a characteristic of the Zuma presidency as he refuses currently to show his policy hand.
Secondly, Mbeki pulls back enough votes to win in a close result. Consequences? Possible prosecution of Zuma. Nkosazana will become the next president of the country. The ANC will remain a divided organisation and a purge of Zuma supporters may take place to promote unity within the organisation. No major political and economical changes can be expected if the Mbeki camp remains in power. The only question that remains is if Mbeki will become a puppetmaster of the new president?
Lastly, and maybe far fetched. Mbeki realised he can't win and Nkosazana Zuma is nominated from the floor and Mbeki stands back urging hos supporters to vote for her. This will be a major gamble and built on the premise that the votes brought out during the nomination process was anti-Mbeki rather than pro-Zuma and will cause a swing at Zuma's cost if Mbeki withdraws. Consequences? If Nkosazana Zuma wins, the consequences will be the same as for when Mbeki wins.
It is a pity that these were the two best candidates that the ANC could put forward for their presidency. This shows out a leadership vacuum in the ANC. Neither candidate is really suitable for the leadership of our country for various reasons.
However, the situation that Mbeki finds himself in as well as the leadership vacuum is of his own doing. He pushed very good leadership candidates in order to protect himself as ANC leader causing a succession vacuum. At the same time he travelled too much during the first part of his term allowing his deputy, whom he never saw as his successor, to build a powerbase within the ANC. This allowed Zuma to take control of the ANC and build a very strong and populist powerbase.
Having said all this, the whole country will be watching the ANC National Conference this week with the greatest of interest. And there will be no lack of news either I hear, apparantly the SABC alone will have in excess if 100 people there covering the event in Polokwane!

The challenges we face

The heading above was the title of a speech delivered by DA Leader Helen Zille during the recently held DA Eastern Cape Provincial Congress. The challenges she referred to does not only describe the challenges faced by the DA in South Africa but by the entire democratic movement. In short, our democracy is under threat, and here is why.

A true democracy is characterised by a number of key characteristics namely:

- A regular opportunity for citizens to vote in free and fair elections;
- Freedom of speech;
- Basic human rights;
- An independent judiciary including independent law enforcement agencies;
- Free media and free expression;
- The freedom to engage in political debate and scrutinise government; and
- Respect for the Constitution.

“We, the people of South Africa . . . adopt this Constitution as the supreme law of the Republic so as to ­ Heal the divisions of the past and establish a society based on democratic values, social justice and fundamental human rights; Lay the foundations for a democratic and open society in which government is based on the will of the people and every citizen is equally protected by law; Improve the quality of life of all citizens and free the potential of each person; and Build a united and democratic South Africa able to take its rightful place as a sovereign state in the family of nations.” [The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa]

There are many more characteristics off course, but these are key features of any democracy. When these are under threat, democracy is under threat. Let’s look at a few recent examples of the ANC’s undemocratic behaviour.

Recently the Sunday Times published shocking information about the Minister of Health and exposed her as a convicted thief and exhibiting dubious anti-social behaviour. In stead of investigating the Minister, top police officers were assigned to investigate the journalists who wrote the story and to find out who their sources are. Even flying to countries afar and using forensic technology that should rather have been employed in the fight against crime. The investigation went so far that the journalist and the editor of the Sunday Times were ready to hand themselves over to police as they expected to be arrested at any moment. Need we remind ourselves that the deterioration in Zimbabwe started with a crackdown on the media?

Freedom is what democracy is all about. And the most basic freedom is the
freedom of expression. The freedom not only to believe, but to profess your
belief in public. Freedom of the press. Freedom to demonstrate
peacefully.
These freedoms are not “foreign, frigid or feelingless,” as Dali Mpofu the Group Chief Executive of the SABC, claims. These freedoms are alive. They are what we struggled for. They are what it means to be a South African.
But the ANC has a different idea about what freedom of expression means. They believe they are free to speak, and you are free to listen.-Helen Zille

The story did not end there. Mike Waters, DA MP asked the Public Protector to investigate whether the Minister of Health was unfairly advantaged in obtaining a liver for a transplant. Waters later withdrew his request, but now find that he is being investigated by the same body for raising such a question. A clear case of intimidating persecution.

When Waters raised questions about Minister Msimang’s past in Parliament, he was summarily silenced, chased out and suspended from Parliament. The Speaker’s ruling was that the language used in his questions was inappropriate and offensive. Now asking fair questions that are in citizens’ interest is all of a sudden “inappropriate”. A clear undermining of the democratic functions of Parliament, a Constitutional body.

The ruling party, the ANC, still talks about something that seems to take precedence over the Constitution. They call this the “National Democratic Revolution”, although there is nothing democratic about it. The ANC refers to its political rivals as “the enemy.” It threatens South Africans with what it calls “the Jacobin option”—the use of “revolutionary force to suppress and destroy its historical opponents,” in its own ominous words.
The ANC’s threats mark a break with the Constitution. They signal a turning point in South African history.
The ANC used to say that the DA was interested in democracy for its own sake, while they were interested in the purposes democracy could achieve.
Today, the ANC is not interested in purposes or in democracy. It is interested in power for power’s sake. And the future of our nation is at risk...
The ANC’s latest trick is to use the Constitution to undermine the Constitution.
So James Ngculu tells us that it is unconstitutional to criticise the Minister of Health because she has a constitutional mandate to carry out. That statement is a warning about the direction South Africa is heading under the ANC.
When it becomes unconstitutional to criticise the government, the Constitution means nothing.
If the ANC behaved in 1994 the way it is behaving today, there might never have been a constitutional settlement in South Africa. It wants to undo many of the freedoms, checks and balances that the Constitution provides.
But we can stop it.
We must remind ourselves that the Constitution belongs to us all, not just to the ANC. It protects the individual. It protects minorities. It protects the people from their government. It protects us all from power abuse.-Helen Zille

However, the most shocking actions by the ruling party have been the all out attack on Helen Zille. During a peaceful, approved march against the scourge of drugs, especially tik, in Cape Town, she and other marchers were summarily arrested. Charges were later dropped, but one can’t help to raise questions why participants of an approved march were arrested together with the Leader of the DA, surely this could not have been a coincidence.

The second attack, and 11th attempt to topple the DA led coalition in Cape Town, came care of the so called spy saga. An investigation asked for into the shady actions of a Cape Town councillor during the floor crossing by the FF+ speaker of that council, is now portrayed as a misuse of council resources by the DA. The police have been involved in a so called investigation but have clearly taken a biased view in the matter, clearly evident from the investigating officer’s comments during a national TV news broadcast. Are they secretly colluding with the ANC to use information against the DA?

The techniques used by the police in this investigation is also dubious after the main “suspect” in the case, exposed the police’s three attempts to coerce him into making false statements against Helen Zille, in return for a successful bail application. The question begs, what power does the police officers in this case have over a supposedly independent judiciary to influence who receives bail and who not?

The government seems not to care. The President and his Cabinet surround
themselves with more and more bodyguards. They take away the child protection
units and the rural commandos. They build boom gates in their own suburbs and
then forbid anyone else to do the same.
If you ask for crime statistics, they hide them. If you complain, they tell you to emigrate. If you exercise your democratic right to protest, you risk arrest. It is not hard to see where the criminals get their inspiration. They see that the President protects the national police chief from arrest. They see how the ANC punishes some and not others. They see the Travelgate MPs still sitting in Parliament. And they develop a contempt for the law.
They understand that crime in South Africa is not a matter of innocence or guilt, but whose side you are on. Close times with those in power seem to buy immunity from prosecution. Being in opposition invites a constant stream of false allegations and groundless charges. Even more sinister, we see ANC leaders increasingly using the institutions of state to drive their political agenda against their opponents. These institutions, particularly in the criminal justice system, charged with protecting our constitution, are now under pressure to undermine it, as the ANC forces them to serve the party not the people.-Helen Zille

It won’t get easier and opposition politicians will find it increasingly more difficult to execute their Constitutional mandates. As this fight intensifies it will become more difficult for DA politicians to execute their duties as persecution intensifies. More DA politicians are being detained by police for doing their job than ever before. Those who ask difficult questions are all of a sudden being persecuted by the ruling party through the misdirection of crucial state resources.

We are probably faced with another struggle in South Africa equal to the struggle against apartheid in order to preserve the country’s fledgling democracy. After all, the fight against apartheid was not just for the removal of a racist system, it was also a fight FOR democracy. Now that hard fought democracy is under serious threat by those who portrayed themselves as freedom fighters. The freedom fighters are becoming the new oppressors.

Read Helen Zille's full speech here

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Politics is Crazy!

Maybe i should have stated that politicians are crazy! I have once again realised that in order to be involved in politics and stay sane, you have to be slightly crazy. I can only imagine what people not involved in politics must think about politicians as they watch the eb and flow of political events, arguments and careers.
Just think of these examples.
Bill Clinton: "I did not have sexual relations with that woman..."
Jacob Zuma the former Deputy President of South Africa who reckoned he prevented contracting HIV by taking a shower after sex.

South African President Thabo Mbeki who defies scientists about the causes and treatment of HIV.
It almost seems that we are exposed to these type of crazy ideas on a daily basis. But worse, the limit is exceeded everyday. Just when you thought "I have now seen or heard it all" along comes another politican pushing the envelope.
However, when one looks at the good leaders they seem to be very uncontroversial, and there are many more of them than the crazy ones. Although, I am sure that they must also be a bit crazy in order to tolerate the antics of those who are too crazy. You get my point...
But what should our approach be to some of the crazy things happening around us? And remember it is not just politicians who say and do crazy things, they just do it so much more publicly.
Well the answer in my view is quite simple: have a sense of humour. Embrace the funny side of crazy but don't be seduced by it, the last thing you wanna do is cross over to the dark side!!