So the last two weeks has shown intense political activity in the ANC in a time of the year when most people make the final preparations for their holidays.
The most significant event has been the provincial general councils of the ANC two or so weeks ago where Jacob Zuma seems to have sweeped the boards with nomination votes with President Mbeki coming second by about 1000 votes. The question one has to ask here is how many votes were pro-Zuma votes as opposed to anti-Mbeki votes?
Since then we have seen a lot of activity, mainly from the Mbeki camp to claw back support ahead of the ANC national conference this week. This included a women's march overtly supporting Mbeki's candidacy as well as one or two court cases. One court case was thrown out but the other one lead to an out of court settlement and the disbanding of three of the ANC's regions in the Free State province. This allows for that province to re-vote for their choice of the ANC leadership. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is much more going on behind the scenes to garner votes for what is turning out to be a high stakes election.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Jacob Zuma will win the party leader race for the ANC?
Anything can still happen and there has even been reports of a possible third mystery candidate. There are so many scenarios it just makes your head spin! Here are three possible ones.
Firstly, the obvious happens and Jacob Zuma wins the vote and becomes the ANC's new leader. Consequences? Mbeki will become a lame duck president, probably being prescribed to by his rival. The possibilty of an early election and Zuma escapes prosecution for his alleged involvement in the arms deal bribes due to political influence. The ANC remains divided and a purge of Mbeki supporters is possible in order to restore unity in the organisation. Such a purge could seriously hurt a person like police commissioner Jackie Selebi. Politcally and economically possibly a shift to the left under a Zuma presidency as he owes the SACP and Cosatu as well as the ANCYL a debt of gratitude. Populist policies and a lack of clear policy direction could also become a characteristic of the Zuma presidency as he refuses currently to show his policy hand.
Secondly, Mbeki pulls back enough votes to win in a close result. Consequences? Possible prosecution of Zuma. Nkosazana will become the next president of the country. The ANC will remain a divided organisation and a purge of Zuma supporters may take place to promote unity within the organisation. No major political and economical changes can be expected if the Mbeki camp remains in power. The only question that remains is if Mbeki will become a puppetmaster of the new president?
Lastly, and maybe far fetched. Mbeki realised he can't win and Nkosazana Zuma is nominated from the floor and Mbeki stands back urging hos supporters to vote for her. This will be a major gamble and built on the premise that the votes brought out during the nomination process was anti-Mbeki rather than pro-Zuma and will cause a swing at Zuma's cost if Mbeki withdraws. Consequences? If Nkosazana Zuma wins, the consequences will be the same as for when Mbeki wins.
It is a pity that these were the two best candidates that the ANC could put forward for their presidency. This shows out a leadership vacuum in the ANC. Neither candidate is really suitable for the leadership of our country for various reasons.
However, the situation that Mbeki finds himself in as well as the leadership vacuum is of his own doing. He pushed very good leadership candidates in order to protect himself as ANC leader causing a succession vacuum. At the same time he travelled too much during the first part of his term allowing his deputy, whom he never saw as his successor, to build a powerbase within the ANC. This allowed Zuma to take control of the ANC and build a very strong and populist powerbase.
Having said all this, the whole country will be watching the ANC National Conference this week with the greatest of interest. And there will be no lack of news either I hear, apparantly the SABC alone will have in excess if 100 people there covering the event in Polokwane!
