“What are you on about?” you may ask. We have just bid farewell to Thabo Mbeki after a week of tumultuous political manoeuvring; sworn in a new president and now you are predicting the end of the heir apparent to the south African presidency. Well I am not “on” anything or smoking anything. I am serious, let me explain.
Let me use the analogy of the dragon and the castle. The Zuma castle has been united against the Mbeki dragon, which it has finally slain this week. However, the Mbeki dragon’s threat against the Zuma castle is what kept this castle of knights from various clans, united. A symbiotic relationship that protected the king of the castle, Zuma. However, now that the symbiotic relationship is no more, there is no guarantee of protection anymore for the king. The king is now on his own, he is threatened.
What must concern the king of the castle most, must be the developments since the slaying of the dragon. There is some serious talk of a palace revolution that could lead to the establishment of a new political party (clan) about to leave the castle and contest it. Although one might think that this new party will replace the threat of the dragon and unify the castle once again, this is only partially true.
You see, the other clans in the castle also have ambitions and although they have supported the king in his struggle against the dragon, it was only in his struggle against the dragon. The new possible threat offers them an opportunity to change the guard and give rise to their own ambitions. King Zuma is no longer useful against the new threat. And therein lies the opportunity.
Why is he no longer useful? Well, if recent polls are to be believed, he is no longer that popular. In actual fact the undertaker he sent to bury the dragon, Mothlanthe, is more popular. So is the slain dragon and the slain dragon’s second head (Mlambo-Ngcuka). There also seems to be significant support for the to be established clan who wishes to contest the castle. This is a problem, or rather an opportunity. This requires the castle to unify once again, but around a king who is right for the challenge.
The old king (Zuma) was the right king to slay the dragon, but the new king (Mothlanthe) is better suited to fight off the challenge of the new clan about to contest the position of the castle in the kingdom. So what do you do? Well, those clans present in the castle made Zuma king, they can also dethrone him. The only question that remains is whether he will be dethroned with his dignity intact or will he also be humiliated in the same fashion as the dragon?
Since the king has not yet been proven innocent in his dealings with weapons pedlars, these accusations may all of a sudden resurface again and cause his forced abdication. We watch the castle with abated breath.
Showing posts with label Thabo Mbeki. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Thabo Mbeki. Show all posts
Sunday, 28 September 2008
Thursday, 25 September 2008
BBC (bye bye comrade)
The heading was one of the jokes I received after Thabo Mbeki's resignation as State President of South Africa. Another one I received was that Mbeki would be given a car as a parting gift from the ANC - a Tata!
It is good that South Africans show a sense of humour during the most political upheaval since the dawn of our young democracy. It is one way of dealing with it.
Despite this I think many South Africans are, like me, angry about the way it was done and the reputational damage this shift in leadership has caused our proud country. Every South African from every background that I have spoken to, or rather that have spoken to me, is of the opinion that this was unnecessary and that Mbeki should have left once his terms was completed. Politicians, and especially the ANC, has lost a great amount of respect and support from voters. The real opinion of the masses will only be expressed during next year's elections. It will be an indication of how quickly people are willing to forgive the ANC for its PR disaster.
I also get the sense that even though people weren't crazy about Mbeki, they still see this move, abeit Constitutional, as one of retribution, unethical and unnecessary.
The Arch said it the best when he commented on the developments, i quote: "I am deeply disturbed by recent events in our beloved county. The so-called recalling of the President of our land fits the pattern of the settling of scores and the throwing about of weight that has happened post-Polokwane.
" Why sack two Premiers with only a few months of their terms left to run and then to re-employ one of them in the Presidency if it is not to prove that there are new cocks of the walk?
"Why humiliate the nation's President in this fashion like the two Premiers with only a few months of his term of office left and that without giving him the chance to respond to any charges that the NEC might have laid?
"Ironically one of the reasons Judge Nicholson declared Mr Jacob Zuma's indictment invalid was that the NPA had not afforded him the right to explain why he should not be charged.
"President Mbeki has scored many significant achievements in our economy and in promoting peace in Africa, most recently in Zimbabwe. But he has made many enemies even within his party for his intolerance of challenges and dissent. South Africa puzzled many of our friends by odd foreign policy decisions that betrayed our history on his watch. Those enemies have got their revenge and are gloating as they rub his nose in the mud.
"There is nothing principled about that. It is good old fashioned tit for tat. It is arrogant, cynical opportunism, that at one moment they can, when judges find against them, call the judges 'part of a counter-revolution' and when they do find in their favour represent 'judicial triumph'.
"It is possible that a post-Polokwane purge will hurt some people who could also be plotting their revenge one day. Our country deserves better. The way of retribution leads to a banana republic.
"I am deeply disturbed that the nation, the State, South Africa, has been subordinated to a political party. 'South Africa belongs to all who live in it'; not to any political formation, however powerful.
"Perhaps now we will call for changes in our Constitution. Let our President be elected directly by all South Africans and let us abolish party lists. They are pernicious and produce sycophants. Let our representatives be elected directly by their constituencies. If the reports are accurate that Mr Zuma did not participate in this distressing debate and opposed the 'recall' of his comrade, then I commend him warmly.
"I pray that we will return to civility in our public discourse. Politicians must remember that even the most powerful parties bite the dust at some point especially when they forget those who put them in power.
"We have a wonderful country with wonderful people of all races. For goodness sake let us not sabotage it.
"Let us remember that the Freedom Charter declares: 'The people shall govern'.
"Please let us, the elders, not go to our graves with broken hearts."
" Why sack two Premiers with only a few months of their terms left to run and then to re-employ one of them in the Presidency if it is not to prove that there are new cocks of the walk?
"Why humiliate the nation's President in this fashion like the two Premiers with only a few months of his term of office left and that without giving him the chance to respond to any charges that the NEC might have laid?
"Ironically one of the reasons Judge Nicholson declared Mr Jacob Zuma's indictment invalid was that the NPA had not afforded him the right to explain why he should not be charged.
"President Mbeki has scored many significant achievements in our economy and in promoting peace in Africa, most recently in Zimbabwe. But he has made many enemies even within his party for his intolerance of challenges and dissent. South Africa puzzled many of our friends by odd foreign policy decisions that betrayed our history on his watch. Those enemies have got their revenge and are gloating as they rub his nose in the mud.
"There is nothing principled about that. It is good old fashioned tit for tat. It is arrogant, cynical opportunism, that at one moment they can, when judges find against them, call the judges 'part of a counter-revolution' and when they do find in their favour represent 'judicial triumph'.
"It is possible that a post-Polokwane purge will hurt some people who could also be plotting their revenge one day. Our country deserves better. The way of retribution leads to a banana republic.
"I am deeply disturbed that the nation, the State, South Africa, has been subordinated to a political party. 'South Africa belongs to all who live in it'; not to any political formation, however powerful.
"Perhaps now we will call for changes in our Constitution. Let our President be elected directly by all South Africans and let us abolish party lists. They are pernicious and produce sycophants. Let our representatives be elected directly by their constituencies. If the reports are accurate that Mr Zuma did not participate in this distressing debate and opposed the 'recall' of his comrade, then I commend him warmly.
"I pray that we will return to civility in our public discourse. Politicians must remember that even the most powerful parties bite the dust at some point especially when they forget those who put them in power.
"We have a wonderful country with wonderful people of all races. For goodness sake let us not sabotage it.
"Let us remember that the Freedom Charter declares: 'The people shall govern'.
"Please let us, the elders, not go to our graves with broken hearts."
I couldn't have said it any better!
Sunday, 14 September 2008
Zuma Presidency No Different to Mbeki?
Zuma - The Winners
There were only two winners declared out of the Zuma judgment on Friday in in the Durban High Court. Jacob Zuma, for obvious reasons, and the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The Democratic Alliance?!
Yes, the DA. The DA's warnings over the past ten years that South Africa's young democracy is facing a crisis, and recently that it is in crisis, was vindicated. The DA has warned for a number of years now that the ANC and its extension the Executive of South Africa, has been meddling in democratic institutions while it should have respected its independence.
The Truth
The judiciary, including the justice system, in a democracy should be independent and free from political interference. However, the ANC and Thabo Mbeki crossed this line a long time ago. Recent attacks on the judiciary once again confirmed to what extent the ANC and its partners would like to involve themselves with the decisions of an independent judiciary. Even though they are already doing it.
The recent capitulation of the Human Rights Commission's demand that Julius Malema and Zwelinzima Vavi should apologise for their "kill" utterances is further proof that the democratic institutions of our country are no longer independent.
The ANC and its alliance partners' obsession to get rid of the Scorpions outside of the must celebrated review of the justice system, shows how the ANC would abuse its power to protect its own members.
Lastly, the recent judgment in the case brought by the City of Cape Town against the Premier of the Western Cape, was another indictment of the ANC's abuse of power to take on its opponents and achieving its own crooked aims. In this judgment it was also clear that the Western Cape ANC government meddled in the justice process and that the Police assisted them by illegally providing them with information on their political opponents.
These are symptoms of a sick democracy.
The judgment by Judge Nicholson was probably the scariest judgment in the history of South Africa relating to its democracy and democratic institutions. It was, as I mentioned earlier, a vindication of the DA's warnings but also a major indictment of President Thabo Mbeki and the ANC. It confirmed that the ANC is subverting South Africa's democracy.
Zuma also a Loser
Even though Zuma can claim that he has been vindicated this is not yet the case. Do not forget that he was part of the same cabinet that interfered in the independence of the judiciary and justice system until that interference turned against him. He is also guilty of subverting South Africa's democracy by his mere association with the ANC.
No Guarantee Zuma would be Different
There is no guarantee therefore that things would be any different under a Zuma presidency than they have been under a Mbeki presidency. After all, it is still the same party in charge. Unless the ANC undergoes a Damascus conversion to democracy, things won't change and judge Nicholson's judgment and the DA's warnings will continue to ring true for years to come. After all the culture in an organisation does not change overnight.
The Other Losers
The obvious losers in this case are President Mbeki, found guilty of subverting the independence of the judiciary and justice system, and the ANC, whose brand of democracy its peddling was found guilty of subverting true democracy.
President Mbeki meddled in the judiciary and justice system for his own faction's gain to persecute Zuma and to protect Selebi. He has been found guilty of subverting our democracy when he was supposed to protect it by oath and he was found guilty of causing a resultant Constitutional crisis as a consequence.
The ANC stood idly by when all this was happening. The fact that another faction is now in charge of the ANC does not change the indictment against it. The same people were in leadership positions when the subversion took place and they failed to act. After all, Zuma was deputy president of the country and the ANC when the meddling in the judiciary already took place. He kept quiet. So did all his cronies currently supporting him. This judgment was a major vote of no confidence in the ANC's idea and brand of a democracy.
The Future
If there is still any remnant of a democracy left in South Africa, the following should take place.
There were only two winners declared out of the Zuma judgment on Friday in in the Durban High Court. Jacob Zuma, for obvious reasons, and the Democratic Alliance (DA).
The Democratic Alliance?!
Yes, the DA. The DA's warnings over the past ten years that South Africa's young democracy is facing a crisis, and recently that it is in crisis, was vindicated. The DA has warned for a number of years now that the ANC and its extension the Executive of South Africa, has been meddling in democratic institutions while it should have respected its independence.
The Truth
The judiciary, including the justice system, in a democracy should be independent and free from political interference. However, the ANC and Thabo Mbeki crossed this line a long time ago. Recent attacks on the judiciary once again confirmed to what extent the ANC and its partners would like to involve themselves with the decisions of an independent judiciary. Even though they are already doing it.
The recent capitulation of the Human Rights Commission's demand that Julius Malema and Zwelinzima Vavi should apologise for their "kill" utterances is further proof that the democratic institutions of our country are no longer independent.
The ANC and its alliance partners' obsession to get rid of the Scorpions outside of the must celebrated review of the justice system, shows how the ANC would abuse its power to protect its own members.
Lastly, the recent judgment in the case brought by the City of Cape Town against the Premier of the Western Cape, was another indictment of the ANC's abuse of power to take on its opponents and achieving its own crooked aims. In this judgment it was also clear that the Western Cape ANC government meddled in the justice process and that the Police assisted them by illegally providing them with information on their political opponents.
These are symptoms of a sick democracy.
The judgment by Judge Nicholson was probably the scariest judgment in the history of South Africa relating to its democracy and democratic institutions. It was, as I mentioned earlier, a vindication of the DA's warnings but also a major indictment of President Thabo Mbeki and the ANC. It confirmed that the ANC is subverting South Africa's democracy.
Zuma also a Loser
Even though Zuma can claim that he has been vindicated this is not yet the case. Do not forget that he was part of the same cabinet that interfered in the independence of the judiciary and justice system until that interference turned against him. He is also guilty of subverting South Africa's democracy by his mere association with the ANC.
No Guarantee Zuma would be Different
There is no guarantee therefore that things would be any different under a Zuma presidency than they have been under a Mbeki presidency. After all, it is still the same party in charge. Unless the ANC undergoes a Damascus conversion to democracy, things won't change and judge Nicholson's judgment and the DA's warnings will continue to ring true for years to come. After all the culture in an organisation does not change overnight.
The Other Losers
The obvious losers in this case are President Mbeki, found guilty of subverting the independence of the judiciary and justice system, and the ANC, whose brand of democracy its peddling was found guilty of subverting true democracy.
President Mbeki meddled in the judiciary and justice system for his own faction's gain to persecute Zuma and to protect Selebi. He has been found guilty of subverting our democracy when he was supposed to protect it by oath and he was found guilty of causing a resultant Constitutional crisis as a consequence.
The ANC stood idly by when all this was happening. The fact that another faction is now in charge of the ANC does not change the indictment against it. The same people were in leadership positions when the subversion took place and they failed to act. After all, Zuma was deputy president of the country and the ANC when the meddling in the judiciary already took place. He kept quiet. So did all his cronies currently supporting him. This judgment was a major vote of no confidence in the ANC's idea and brand of a democracy.
The Future
If there is still any remnant of a democracy left in South Africa, the following should take place.
- President Thabo Mbeki should end his term immediately and call elections so that the country can exercise its democratic will.
- The country should be voting Zuma and the ANC out of power for subverting our democracy (although this is unlikely to happen and the status quo would remain).
- Zuma should go public and provide guarantees how he and the ANC would safeguard South Africa's democracy and respect the independence of its justice system, judiciary and democratic institutions. After all, despite his partners' claims, Zuma has won more court cases than he has lost, proving there is nothing wrong with the judiciary apart from the ANC government's meddling. His alliance partners should do the same.
- The independence of our judiciary, justice system and democratic institutions should be strengthened and all ANC deployments should be withdrawn from these bodies with immediate effect as a first step towards that strengthening.
South Africa's democracy remains in crisis if the powers that be does not address the very real indictments contained in Judge Nicholson's judgment. We need to see clear and practical steps to rectify what has been damaged in our democracy by the ANC.
Lastly, when the DA warns that our democracy is in crisis, you may listen to it, it obviously knows what it is talking about. Let's get out there and dethrone the power hungry ANC and its alliance partners!!
Sunday, 09 December 2007
It is Zuma!!! Or is it?
So the last two weeks has shown intense political activity in the ANC in a time of the year when most people make the final preparations for their holidays.
The most significant event has been the provincial general councils of the ANC two or so weeks ago where Jacob Zuma seems to have sweeped the boards with nomination votes with President Mbeki coming second by about 1000 votes. The question one has to ask here is how many votes were pro-Zuma votes as opposed to anti-Mbeki votes?
Since then we have seen a lot of activity, mainly from the Mbeki camp to claw back support ahead of the ANC national conference this week. This included a women's march overtly supporting Mbeki's candidacy as well as one or two court cases. One court case was thrown out but the other one lead to an out of court settlement and the disbanding of three of the ANC's regions in the Free State province. This allows for that province to re-vote for their choice of the ANC leadership. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is much more going on behind the scenes to garner votes for what is turning out to be a high stakes election.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Jacob Zuma will win the party leader race for the ANC?
Anything can still happen and there has even been reports of a possible third mystery candidate. There are so many scenarios it just makes your head spin! Here are three possible ones.
Firstly, the obvious happens and Jacob Zuma wins the vote and becomes the ANC's new leader. Consequences? Mbeki will become a lame duck president, probably being prescribed to by his rival. The possibilty of an early election and Zuma escapes prosecution for his alleged involvement in the arms deal bribes due to political influence. The ANC remains divided and a purge of Mbeki supporters is possible in order to restore unity in the organisation. Such a purge could seriously hurt a person like police commissioner Jackie Selebi. Politcally and economically possibly a shift to the left under a Zuma presidency as he owes the SACP and Cosatu as well as the ANCYL a debt of gratitude. Populist policies and a lack of clear policy direction could also become a characteristic of the Zuma presidency as he refuses currently to show his policy hand.
Secondly, Mbeki pulls back enough votes to win in a close result. Consequences? Possible prosecution of Zuma. Nkosazana will become the next president of the country. The ANC will remain a divided organisation and a purge of Zuma supporters may take place to promote unity within the organisation. No major political and economical changes can be expected if the Mbeki camp remains in power. The only question that remains is if Mbeki will become a puppetmaster of the new president?
Lastly, and maybe far fetched. Mbeki realised he can't win and Nkosazana Zuma is nominated from the floor and Mbeki stands back urging hos supporters to vote for her. This will be a major gamble and built on the premise that the votes brought out during the nomination process was anti-Mbeki rather than pro-Zuma and will cause a swing at Zuma's cost if Mbeki withdraws. Consequences? If Nkosazana Zuma wins, the consequences will be the same as for when Mbeki wins.
It is a pity that these were the two best candidates that the ANC could put forward for their presidency. This shows out a leadership vacuum in the ANC. Neither candidate is really suitable for the leadership of our country for various reasons.
However, the situation that Mbeki finds himself in as well as the leadership vacuum is of his own doing. He pushed very good leadership candidates in order to protect himself as ANC leader causing a succession vacuum. At the same time he travelled too much during the first part of his term allowing his deputy, whom he never saw as his successor, to build a powerbase within the ANC. This allowed Zuma to take control of the ANC and build a very strong and populist powerbase.
Having said all this, the whole country will be watching the ANC National Conference this week with the greatest of interest. And there will be no lack of news either I hear, apparantly the SABC alone will have in excess if 100 people there covering the event in Polokwane!
The most significant event has been the provincial general councils of the ANC two or so weeks ago where Jacob Zuma seems to have sweeped the boards with nomination votes with President Mbeki coming second by about 1000 votes. The question one has to ask here is how many votes were pro-Zuma votes as opposed to anti-Mbeki votes?
Since then we have seen a lot of activity, mainly from the Mbeki camp to claw back support ahead of the ANC national conference this week. This included a women's march overtly supporting Mbeki's candidacy as well as one or two court cases. One court case was thrown out but the other one lead to an out of court settlement and the disbanding of three of the ANC's regions in the Free State province. This allows for that province to re-vote for their choice of the ANC leadership. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is much more going on behind the scenes to garner votes for what is turning out to be a high stakes election.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Jacob Zuma will win the party leader race for the ANC?
Anything can still happen and there has even been reports of a possible third mystery candidate. There are so many scenarios it just makes your head spin! Here are three possible ones.
Firstly, the obvious happens and Jacob Zuma wins the vote and becomes the ANC's new leader. Consequences? Mbeki will become a lame duck president, probably being prescribed to by his rival. The possibilty of an early election and Zuma escapes prosecution for his alleged involvement in the arms deal bribes due to political influence. The ANC remains divided and a purge of Mbeki supporters is possible in order to restore unity in the organisation. Such a purge could seriously hurt a person like police commissioner Jackie Selebi. Politcally and economically possibly a shift to the left under a Zuma presidency as he owes the SACP and Cosatu as well as the ANCYL a debt of gratitude. Populist policies and a lack of clear policy direction could also become a characteristic of the Zuma presidency as he refuses currently to show his policy hand.
Secondly, Mbeki pulls back enough votes to win in a close result. Consequences? Possible prosecution of Zuma. Nkosazana will become the next president of the country. The ANC will remain a divided organisation and a purge of Zuma supporters may take place to promote unity within the organisation. No major political and economical changes can be expected if the Mbeki camp remains in power. The only question that remains is if Mbeki will become a puppetmaster of the new president?
Lastly, and maybe far fetched. Mbeki realised he can't win and Nkosazana Zuma is nominated from the floor and Mbeki stands back urging hos supporters to vote for her. This will be a major gamble and built on the premise that the votes brought out during the nomination process was anti-Mbeki rather than pro-Zuma and will cause a swing at Zuma's cost if Mbeki withdraws. Consequences? If Nkosazana Zuma wins, the consequences will be the same as for when Mbeki wins.
It is a pity that these were the two best candidates that the ANC could put forward for their presidency. This shows out a leadership vacuum in the ANC. Neither candidate is really suitable for the leadership of our country for various reasons.
However, the situation that Mbeki finds himself in as well as the leadership vacuum is of his own doing. He pushed very good leadership candidates in order to protect himself as ANC leader causing a succession vacuum. At the same time he travelled too much during the first part of his term allowing his deputy, whom he never saw as his successor, to build a powerbase within the ANC. This allowed Zuma to take control of the ANC and build a very strong and populist powerbase.
Having said all this, the whole country will be watching the ANC National Conference this week with the greatest of interest. And there will be no lack of news either I hear, apparantly the SABC alone will have in excess if 100 people there covering the event in Polokwane!
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