Campaigning for the DA - 22 Days to Go!!

Can you believe it that there are only 22 Days to go to Election Day!!?? It felt like only yesterday when the election was announced and now we are nearing the end of the campaign at a rapid speed.

It has really been a different but also fun camapign at the same time thus far. Also a very positive campaign. Being out there doing foot canvassing, handing out pamphlets, being visible at sport events, visiting retirement homes and other special homes and holding tables at shopping centres I have never felt such a positive vibe towards the DA in an election as this time around.

People are interested in politics again and they just want to chat to you about Helen Zille and the DA and ghow important it is to drive the ANC below a two thirds majority. Even though many of us, especially the candidates, are feeling tired, we are pumped because of the positive response we have received thus far.

This makes me very optimistic about the DA's chances in the coming election. Our campaign is running smooth and I don't think we have ever before been so visisble as we are this time around. Apart form the ANC I have not seen other parties campaigning on the ground outside the eyes of the media as much as we have. It just goes to show that size matters and the importance of having many activists, members and public representatives who can help campaigning.

I believe that this election will see a number of smaller parties being obliterated as South African politics experiences a realignment. Voters are more informed that before and understand what is at stake. So allow me, at thsi stage while I am still very positive to predict the winners and losers as I see it will emerge after 22 April.

Winners:

Democratic Alliance with a growth of between 4% and 6% in growth; with a win in the Western Cape and possibly part of a coalition government in the Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

ANC - although with less votes than before will still win the national election.

COPE - although they will fare worse than expectation may come in between 5% and 8% of the vote which is good for a first time party.

Losers:

ID - will loose votes to the DA and COPE.

UDM - will loose votes to COPE.

FF+ - will retain their core fundamentalist voters but will return with less votes (international votes are going to the DA and not the FF+ as they expect).

PAC, AZAPO, APC, PAM - these are all splinter parties - old and new - who fish in the same pond but can't get along which will see the pan-African Azanian movement without representation in parliament due to their fractious support and internal vote splitting

New parties - with the exception of COPE none of the new parties will amass to anything as history has learnt - let's just hope that their collective votes do not cost other opposition parties seats in Parliament.

Retain their support:

IFP - has a core support but may be the surprise package in this election if they succeed to increase their votes in KZN. However, I expect them to retain their current support level.

ACDP - their voter base is a fundamentalist base and usually remains the same.

Well, roll on 22 April so that we can see whether my predictions are a hit or a miss!!!

Keep coming back I will blog at least once a week from now on to share experiences on the campaign trail with you.

Photos: DA manifesto launch in Johannesburg, DA election launch in Kliptown Soweto.

IT IS STILL THE DA VS ANC

There has been a lot of hype in South African politics about the breakaway from the ANC - the Congress of the People (COPE). The promise that it offered to help help break the power of the ANC has however, turned out to be a cracker without a fuse.
The last week we saw the COPE being sued for unpaid printing bills and it losing out totally in by-elections in the Eastern Cape, its supposed heartland. To top it all a new poll was published today that shows COPE to achieve 8% only in the coming elections.
This is very disappointing as we hoped that the COPE would be able to help driving the ANC below its current two thirds majority, unfortunately they seem unable to get going with a proper election campaign in order to compete.
On the other hand the IFP, written off as a has been party, seems to show some promise again in KwaZulu-Natal its traditional power base in taking on the ANC majority in conjunction with the DA.
All of this shows that the major parties in South African politics are still the DA and the ANC competing for the majority of South African votes.
The lesson in all this is that if you want change, you must vote and vote DA!

The End for Zuma

“What are you on about?” you may ask. We have just bid farewell to Thabo Mbeki after a week of tumultuous political manoeuvring; sworn in a new president and now you are predicting the end of the heir apparent to the south African presidency. Well I am not “on” anything or smoking anything. I am serious, let me explain.
Let me use the analogy of the dragon and the castle. The Zuma castle has been united against the Mbeki dragon, which it has finally slain this week. However, the Mbeki dragon’s threat against the Zuma castle is what kept this castle of knights from various clans, united. A symbiotic relationship that protected the king of the castle, Zuma. However, now that the symbiotic relationship is no more, there is no guarantee of protection anymore for the king. The king is now on his own, he is threatened.
What must concern the king of the castle most, must be the developments since the slaying of the dragon. There is some serious talk of a palace revolution that could lead to the establishment of a new political party (clan) about to leave the castle and contest it. Although one might think that this new party will replace the threat of the dragon and unify the castle once again, this is only partially true.
You see, the other clans in the castle also have ambitions and although they have supported the king in his struggle against the dragon, it was only in his struggle against the dragon. The new possible threat offers them an opportunity to change the guard and give rise to their own ambitions. King Zuma is no longer useful against the new threat. And therein lies the opportunity.
Why is he no longer useful? Well, if recent polls are to be believed, he is no longer that popular. In actual fact the undertaker he sent to bury the dragon, Mothlanthe, is more popular. So is the slain dragon and the slain dragon’s second head (Mlambo-Ngcuka). There also seems to be significant support for the to be established clan who wishes to contest the castle. This is a problem, or rather an opportunity. This requires the castle to unify once again, but around a king who is right for the challenge.
The old king (Zuma) was the right king to slay the dragon, but the new king (Mothlanthe) is better suited to fight off the challenge of the new clan about to contest the position of the castle in the kingdom. So what do you do? Well, those clans present in the castle made Zuma king, they can also dethrone him. The only question that remains is whether he will be dethroned with his dignity intact or will he also be humiliated in the same fashion as the dragon?
Since the king has not yet been proven innocent in his dealings with weapons pedlars, these accusations may all of a sudden resurface again and cause his forced abdication. We watch the castle with abated breath.

It is Zuma!!! Or is it?

So the last two weeks has shown intense political activity in the ANC in a time of the year when most people make the final preparations for their holidays.
The most significant event has been the provincial general councils of the ANC two or so weeks ago where Jacob Zuma seems to have sweeped the boards with nomination votes with President Mbeki coming second by about 1000 votes. The question one has to ask here is how many votes were pro-Zuma votes as opposed to anti-Mbeki votes?
Since then we have seen a lot of activity, mainly from the Mbeki camp to claw back support ahead of the ANC national conference this week. This included a women's march overtly supporting Mbeki's candidacy as well as one or two court cases. One court case was thrown out but the other one lead to an out of court settlement and the disbanding of three of the ANC's regions in the Free State province. This allows for that province to re-vote for their choice of the ANC leadership. You can bet your bottom dollar that there is much more going on behind the scenes to garner votes for what is turning out to be a high stakes election.
Is it a foregone conclusion that Jacob Zuma will win the party leader race for the ANC?
Anything can still happen and there has even been reports of a possible third mystery candidate. There are so many scenarios it just makes your head spin! Here are three possible ones.
Firstly, the obvious happens and Jacob Zuma wins the vote and becomes the ANC's new leader. Consequences? Mbeki will become a lame duck president, probably being prescribed to by his rival. The possibilty of an early election and Zuma escapes prosecution for his alleged involvement in the arms deal bribes due to political influence. The ANC remains divided and a purge of Mbeki supporters is possible in order to restore unity in the organisation. Such a purge could seriously hurt a person like police commissioner Jackie Selebi. Politcally and economically possibly a shift to the left under a Zuma presidency as he owes the SACP and Cosatu as well as the ANCYL a debt of gratitude. Populist policies and a lack of clear policy direction could also become a characteristic of the Zuma presidency as he refuses currently to show his policy hand.
Secondly, Mbeki pulls back enough votes to win in a close result. Consequences? Possible prosecution of Zuma. Nkosazana will become the next president of the country. The ANC will remain a divided organisation and a purge of Zuma supporters may take place to promote unity within the organisation. No major political and economical changes can be expected if the Mbeki camp remains in power. The only question that remains is if Mbeki will become a puppetmaster of the new president?
Lastly, and maybe far fetched. Mbeki realised he can't win and Nkosazana Zuma is nominated from the floor and Mbeki stands back urging hos supporters to vote for her. This will be a major gamble and built on the premise that the votes brought out during the nomination process was anti-Mbeki rather than pro-Zuma and will cause a swing at Zuma's cost if Mbeki withdraws. Consequences? If Nkosazana Zuma wins, the consequences will be the same as for when Mbeki wins.
It is a pity that these were the two best candidates that the ANC could put forward for their presidency. This shows out a leadership vacuum in the ANC. Neither candidate is really suitable for the leadership of our country for various reasons.
However, the situation that Mbeki finds himself in as well as the leadership vacuum is of his own doing. He pushed very good leadership candidates in order to protect himself as ANC leader causing a succession vacuum. At the same time he travelled too much during the first part of his term allowing his deputy, whom he never saw as his successor, to build a powerbase within the ANC. This allowed Zuma to take control of the ANC and build a very strong and populist powerbase.
Having said all this, the whole country will be watching the ANC National Conference this week with the greatest of interest. And there will be no lack of news either I hear, apparantly the SABC alone will have in excess if 100 people there covering the event in Polokwane!